In mid February 2026, indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program drew global attention and markets have been responding sharply. While both sides have signaled a willingness to continue dialogue, uncertainty remains high, and oil prices have been volatile as investors factor in geopolitical risks.
What’s Happening in the US Iran Nuclear Talks?
Iran and the United States engaged in indirect nuclear discussions in Geneva aimed at addressing concerns over Iran’s nuclear program. Iranian officials have indicated that the sides have reached a basic understanding on guiding principles, though no formal agreement has yet been finalized.
Both governments acknowledge progress, but key issues remain unresolved. Iran is expected to submit more detailed proposals in the coming stages of talks.
At the same time, the Trump administration has emphasized diplomacy while also maintaining military readiness in the region. This dual approach negotiation combined with deterrence has kept global markets cautious.
Russia has also weighed in, urging restraint and advocating for a diplomatic settlement rather than military escalation.
Oil Prices Have Been Reacting Strongly
Because Iran plays a major role in global energy markets and the Strait of Hormuz remains a crucial route for crude shipments any uncertainty surrounding U.S. Iran relations quickly impacts oil prices.
1. Oil Prices Rose on Rising Tensions
Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed toward multi-month highs as traders considered the possibility of supply disruptions tied to geopolitical tensions.
2. Market Volatility Reflects Mixed Signals
When talks appear to make progress, prices ease slightly. However, persistent uncertainty has kept a geopolitical risk premium built into oil markets.
3. Risk to Global Supply Routes
Analysts note that any conflict or military escalation near the Strait of Hormuz through which nearly one-fifth of global oil flows could significantly tighten supply and push prices even higher.
In short, oil markets are currently reacting more to geopolitical risk sentiment than to changes in actual supply and demand.
Broader Market and Geopolitical Impact
• Global stock markets have shown mixed reactions due to rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty.
• The combination of diplomacy and military preparedness has added to investor caution.
• Russia’s involvement in diplomatic messaging adds another layer of global geopolitical complexity.
The situation creates a delicate balance: progress in negotiations could calm markets, while any breakdown or escalation could trigger sharp price spikes in oil and broader market volatility.
Key Takeaways
1. No Final Nuclear Deal Yet
Although discussions are ongoing, a complete agreement between the U.S. and Iran has not been reached.
2. Oil Prices Reflect Geopolitical Risk
Energy markets are pricing in the possibility of conflict rather than reacting to actual supply shortages.
3. Markets Remain Highly Sensitive
Future developments whether diplomatic breakthroughs or renewed tensions — could rapidly influence oil prices, stock markets, and global investor sentiment.
