In the latest state elections in Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised to achieve a historic milestone by leading in the polls for the first time in Thuringia and Saxony. Exit polls suggest that the AfD could secure between 30.5% and 33.5% of the vote in Thuringia and around 31.5% in Saxony. This positions them as a dominant force in the eastern states.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), traditionally a major player in German politics, is projected to receive 24.5% of the vote in Thuringia and 31.5-32% in Saxony. Despite this strong performance, the CDU faces challenges in forming a coalition with other parties, particularly due to the CDU’s refusal to collaborate with the AfD.
The recent elections also saw the rise of the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which is expected to capture up to 16% of the vote in Thuringia and 12% in Saxony. This leftist group’s significant gains are adding to the complexity of forming new state governments.
AfD’s co-leader, Alice Weidel, celebrated the results as a “historic success” and a “requiem” for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition. However, this success is tempered by the AfD’s difficulty in forming coalitions with other parties, which could impact their ability to govern effectively.
The CDU’s general secretary, Carsten Linnemann, reaffirmed his party’s stance against collaborating with the AfD, a position criticized by Weidel as “pure ignorance.” The CDU’s refusal highlights the deep divisions within German politics.
The rise of populist parties like the AfD is driven by growing discontent with the national government, including anti-immigration sentiments and opposition to German military aid to Ukraine. The AfD’s presence is particularly strong in former East Germany, where its branches are monitored for extremist activities.
In Thuringia, the AfD’s leader Björn Höcke is appealing a conviction for using Nazi slogans at rallies, reflecting the controversial nature of the party’s platform. Meanwhile, Chancellor Scholz’s Social Democrats are expected to maintain their positions in both state legislatures, although the Greens may lose ground in Thuringia.
Another state election is scheduled for September 22 in Brandenburg, where the Social Democrats currently hold power. This upcoming election will further shape the political landscape ahead of Germany’s next national election in 2025.
