Canberra, Australia: Australia is projected to fall slightly short of its 2030 climate target and significantly miss its 2035 emissions reduction goal unless major policy changes are implemented, Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen has revealed.
Delivering the government’s annual climate statement to parliament, Bowen said it is normal for a gap to exist between projected emissions and long-term targets, adding that new policies are expected to improve the outlook over time.
The Environment Department reports that Australia is on track for a 42% reduction in emissions by 2030, just 1% below the legislated target. However, the government’s recently set 2035 goal of a 62–70% reduction is far off course, with projections indicating emissions will decrease by only 48% by that year.
Despite the shortfall, Bowen emphasized that Australia will meet its international obligations under the Paris Agreement, as the nation remains within its cumulative carbon emissions budget for this decade.
The minister highlighted that Australia has already cut emissions by 28.5% since 2005, with a 2.2% reduction achieved in the past year alone. “While the 2035 target is ambitious and achievable, it is not yet being achieved,” Bowen stated. “We cannot pretend climate change isn’t real. We cannot ignore it. And we can’t give up.”
The government notes that these projections do not yet include recently announced initiatives, such as support for the green metals industry, and potential policy changes from reviews like the Safeguard Mechanism, which mandates major polluters to cut emissions by 5% annually.
Greens leader Larissa Waters criticized the progress, calling a 48% reduction “nowhere near” the 62% promised and describing the figures as “diabolical pollution numbers” that could lead to catastrophic climate change.
The issue comes as the Coalition abandoned its net-zero by 2050 target, criticizing climate policies for driving up power prices, while attacking Labor’s targets as unrealistic. Bowen reaffirmed Labor’s commitment, stating the 2035 goal is scientifically grounded and essential to keeping global warming well below 2°C and within reach of 1.5°C.
The annual climate update is a legislated requirement, introduced in a deal with Greens and independent senator David Pocock when the government set its 2030 target into law.
